10 free open access papers for Risk Managers
by Ramon Moreno and José María Serena Garralda
BIS Working Papers No 712, March 2018
Abstract: We investigate the role of firms' credit risk in the onshore transmission of international bond market conditions. We show that reductions in the global price of risk, measured by the excess bond premium, encourage more international bond borrowing by smaller and younger firms. Due to informational asymmetries, these firms pay a higher credit spread. Thus their funding costs, and consequently their international borrowing, are more tightly linked to the global price of risk. The funds borrowed in response to favourable market conditions cause their balance sheets to deteriorate; over a three-year horizon, leverage increases, in support of capital expenditure, and cash holdings increase. Our results reveal a micro-level link between rising global risk appetite and the gradual build-up of domestic vulnerabilities.
Keywords: international bonds, credit risk, global risk appetite, firm-level data.
by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Xiaoxi Liu and Ilhyock Shim
BIS Working Papers No 710, March 2018
Abstract: We test the risk taking channel of exchange rate appreciations using firm-level data from private and public firms in ten Asian emerging market economies during 2002-2015. Since foreign currency (FX) debt at the firm level is not observed for the Asian economies, we approximate the FX debt of a given firm by assuming that any given firm will hold a constant share of its total debt in foreign currency, where this share is given by the firm's country's share of FX liabilities in total liabilities. We measure risk taking by firm leverage. We show that firms with a higher volume of FX debt before the exchange rate appreciates, increase their leverage relatively more after the appreciation. Our results imply that more indebted firms become even more leveraged after exchange rate appreciations.
Keywords: capital flows, exchange rates, FX borrowing, firm heterogeneity, firm leverage.
by Masazumi Hattori, Ilhyock Shim and Yoshihiko Sugihara
BIS Working Papers No 702, February 2018
Abstract: We estimate variance risk premiums (VRPs) in the stock markets of major advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs) over 2007-15 and decompose the VRP into variance-diffusive risk premium (DRP) and variance-jump risk premium (JRP). Daily VAR analysis reveals significant spillovers from the VRPs of the United States and eurozone's AEs to the VRPs of other economic areas, especially during the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period. We also find that during the post-GFC period, shocks to the DRPs of the United States and the eurozone's AEs have relatively strong and long-lived positive effects on the VRPs of other economic areas whereas shocks to their JRPs have relatively weak and short-lived positive effects. In addition, we show that increases in the size of US VRP, DRP and JRP tend to significantly reduce weekly equity fund flows to all other AEs and some EMEs during the post-GFC period. Finally, US DRP plays a more important role than US JRP in the determination of equity fund flows to all other AEs and some EMEs after the GFC, while the opposite holds true for equity fund flows to all other AEs during the GFC. Such results indicate the possibility of equity fund flows working as a channel of cross-market VRP spillovers.
Keywords: cross-stock market correlation, emerging market economy, equity fund flow, variance risk Premium.
Gonçalo Faria – Fabio Verona
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper 7/2018, 3 April 2018
Abstract: We extract cycles in the term spread (TMS) and study their role for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) using linear models. The low frequency component of the TMS is a strong and robust out-of-sample ERP predictor. It obtains out-of-sample R-squares (versus the historical mean benchmark) of 1.98% and 22.1% for monthly and annual data, respectively. It forecasts well also during expansions and outperforms several variables that have been proposed as good ERP predictors. Its predictability power comes exclusively from the discount rate channel. Contrarily, the high and business cycle frequency components of the TMS are poor out-of-sample ERP predictors.
Keywords: equity risk premium, term spread, predictability, frequency domain.
Enghin Atalay, Thorsten Drautzburg, and Zhenting Wang
February 2018
Abstract: Using a multi-industry real business cycle model, we empirically examine the microeconomic origins of aggregate tail risks. Our model, estimated using industry-level data from 1972 to 2016, indicates that industry-specific shocks account for most of the third and fourth moments of GDP growth.
Keywords: production networks, business cycles, tail risk.
Gabriel Jiménez, Enrique Moral-Benito and Raquel Vegas
Abstract: We show that bank lending standards are influenced by macroeconomic conditions. We use monthly data from the Banco de España Central Credit Register, which allow us to monitor all loan applications made by non-financial firms to non-current banks from 2002 to 2015. To test the pro-cyclicality of banks’ appetite for risk, we investigate how two firm characteristics (ex-ante credit risk and productivity) interacting with two macroeconomic indicators (business cycle and the monetary policy stance) affect the probability of granting a loan. In order to enhance identification we account for unobserved heterogeneity by means of firm and banktime fixed effects. Our findings indicate that banks soften their credit standards during booms or when monetary policy is loose to harden them during busts or when short-term interest rates increase. This pattern is especially relevant in the case of firms’ productivity, which might partly explain the dismal evolution of aggregate productivity in Spain during the pre-crisis period. Finally, we also find that these results are more pronounced among less capitalized, less liquid and more profitable banks.
Keywords: productivity, credit risk, bank supply, lending standards.
CPMI Papers No. 176, 10 April 2018
In April 2015, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors asked the Financial Stability Board to work with the CPMI, IOSCO, and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to develop and report back on a workplan for identifying and addressing any gaps and potential financial stability risks relating to CCPs that are systemic across multiple jurisdictions and for helping to enhance their resolvability. This report, Framework for supervisory stress testing of central counterparties (CCPs), published today by the CPMI and IOSCO addresses one aspect of this joint CCP Workplan.
The supervisory stress testing framework is designed to support tests conducted by one or more authorities that examine the potential macro-level impact of a common stress event affecting multiple CCPs. Among other things, such supervisory stress tests will help authorities better understand the scope and magnitude of the interdependencies between markets, CCPs and other entities such as participants, liquidity providers and custodians.
Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, Tobias Huber, Max Reppen, Robert N. Gantner
Abstract: We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warning of market instabilities, quantifying a high crash hazard and probabilistic bracket of the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel's back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead.
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci.
Abstract: During 2016-17, market analysts and policymakers grappled with the puzzling coexistence of subdued market volatility and heightened policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. The rise in world growth expectations can explain some but by no means all of the decline in market volatility during this period. This column argues that excess optimism about future growth prospects might have fuelled the decline in volatility. This would imply that gradual unwinding of such expectations could bring more bursts of market volatility, as we have begun to witness since the start of 2018.
Keywords: equity market, volatility, economic growth, international finance, financial markets.
Michel Alexandre da Silva, Giovani Antônio Silva Brito and Theo Cotrim Martins.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of defaulting on one personal credit type on future default on other types of loan. Using Brazilian micro data, we run a logistic regression to estimate the probability of default on a given credit type, by including personal overdue exposure in the other debt types among the explanatory variables. Our results show that this effect is positive and significant, although quantitatively heterogeneous. We also discuss the rationale behind these results. Specifically, it was found that financing credit types (vehicle and real estate financing) contaminate the other credit types more, as defaulting may cause the debtor to lose the financed good. Moreover, riskier loan types (overdraft, non-payroll-deducted personal credit, and credit card) are more contaminated by defaults on other credit types, which is explained by the fact that defaulting individuals have limited access to less risky debt types.
Keywords: Credit default contagion, debtor approach, transaction approach, Brazilian credit market.
Comentarios