Análisis de una guerra comercial entre EE.UU. y China


A continuación, les dejo una selección de artículos que analizan lo que pudiera ser una guerra comercial entre EE.UU. y China. Primeramente, ¿Habrá una guerra comercial entre EU y China?

Trade Wars, Stranded Assets, and the Stock Market (Wonkish) por Paul Krugman y Why the U.S.-China ‘Trade War’ Is Really About the Future of Innovation (Knowledge Wharton).

Acá dos posts con un análisis, no de opinión (y letras) si no de análisis económico a toda regla: Some Thoughts on Chinese Tariffs on US Exports: Tariff Incidence, Value Added, Exchange RatesIs There a Pattern? Trade Sanctions on China.

Algunos estudios (incluyen bibliografía):
  • A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points. There are growing signs that a trade war is possible, and that the multilateral trading system may not be able to prevent it. This column asks what would happen with tariffs around the world if countries were to move from cooperative tariff setting within the WTO to non-cooperative tariff setting outside the WTO. It argues that that the resulting trade war with countries exploiting their market power would lead to a 32-percentage point increase in the tariff protection faced by the average world exporter.
  • The suspense of trade agreementsPreferential trade agreements don’t happen overnight – they require lengthy negotiations. This column examines the effect the process of negotiating an agreement has on trade between the negotiating parties. The results suggest that during prolonged negotiations, the expectation of the agreement, or uncertainty before the signing of the agreement, undermine bilateral trade growth.
Finalmente, como complemento un gráfico que nos muestra el Plan de Infraestructura Global de China:


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